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Initially, Donald Trump seemed to adopt a strong stance concerning the Ukrainian conflict. After delivering statements of "serious ramifications" in August in case Russia's president persisted obstructing truce talks, the former president ultimately enacted substantial penalties on Russia's two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This move seriously hindered the Russian leader's ability to fund his military invasion in Ukraine.

But, via his latest detailed peace plan for Ukraine, which was drafted by American and Russian representatives excluding Ukrainian or EU input, Trump has apparently returned to his pro-Putin stance.

Benefiting Invasion

Trump's proposal would essentially favor the Russian leader for invading Ukraine while placing Ukraine's political freedom in jeopardy. Although ringing declarations that "The nation's independence will be affirmed", much of the initiative in reality weaken that same sovereignty. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would likely be a catastrophe for the nation.

Demonstrating his business experience, the former president persists to view the situation in Ukraine as a simple land disagreement, as if handing Russia a portion of Ukrainian land will appease the president. However, Putin's military campaign is not merely about dominating a destroyed area of deindustrialized land in the Donbas region. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democracy – and the Russian leader's clear desire to weaken it so it stops serves as an appealing model for the Russia's population of the democratic governance that Putin's growing authoritarian rule withholds them.

Border Giveaways

Although maintaining in status the presently divided oblasts of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, Trump's proposal would require Ukraine to surrender all of this eastern territory. Beyond benefiting the Russian Federation with territory that its troops have been failed to seize in exceeding a ten years of conflict, this concession would make Ukraine's defensive positions severely undermined.

The area is the location of Ukraine's well-known "stronghold system", the entrenched defensive positions that constitute a critical barrier to invading forces. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military surrender these fortifications, giving Russian forces a unobstructed route to the capital should he later choose to restart the hostilities.

Armed Forces Reductions

Then, in a move that would facilitate renewed conflict more feasible for Russia, Trump would mandate Ukraine to diminish the size of its military from their existing large number personnel to a limit of six hundred thousand. Importantly, Trump's proposal imposes no equivalent limits on Russia's military.

Apparently as a accommodation to Putin's attempts to characterize the nation's democratically elected leadership as extremists, Trump's plan states: "All Nazi ideology and practices must be opposed and banned." Seemingly to emphasize this point, it insists that "Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, Trump places no condition that the Russian leader endanger his dictatorship by allowing elections in his own country.

Security Guarantees

Admittedly, the initiative has the Russian Federation pledge not to "invade other states" and to "enshrine in law its stance of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine". Yet considering that Putin has broken comparable accords in the previous instances – such as the 1994 agreement, in which the Russian government pledged to honor the nation's territorial integrity in exchange for relinquishing its historical nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia promised to a ceasefire and a return of occupied areas in the region to Kyiv – why should we have confidence in Russia now?

For this reason Ukraine has been so adamant on external protection assurances. While the plan promises a "strong coordinated military response" should the Russian Federation renew its invasion, and states that "The nation will receive strong defense commitments", the details range from fuzzy to troubling. The initiative would not only deny the nation alliance membership but also prohibit alliance nations from positioning military personnel on the nation's land, thus blocking the peacekeeping contingent, reportedly headed by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to stop Putin from rebuilding his diminished troops, restocking, and reinvading.

International Response

An additional supplementary accord reportedly would grant Ukraine with a alliance-like security guarantee, in which any subsequent "serious, intentional, and sustained military assault" by the Russian Federation on the country "shall be regarded as an assault endangering the peace and security of the transatlantic community." This indicates a defense action. But unlike a capable national defense – the nation's best defense against renewed hostilities – the success of the side agreement would hinge on the willingness of alliance members, including Trump, to act militarily to Russia's hostilities, something they have {not