Starmer's Backers Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from securing a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an impending byelection.

Major Obstacles in the Selection Process

A number of figures on the party's powerful NEC have apparently predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to navigate the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to avoid any potential leadership challenge.

The Labour party machine is said to have swung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he caused outrage within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.

Political Landscape and Poll Ratings

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Financial and Political Dangers

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.

However, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are for now remaining quiet, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.