Moving from Reluctant Respect to Unease: Russia Weighs Up the Fall of Venezuela's Leader.
A surprise raid against the capital city under cover of darkness, culminating in the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power announces its plan to rule for an indefinite period.
That is precisely how Vladimir Putin imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in February 2022. In reality, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a move labeled illegal by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who is set to be tried in New York.
Public Fury, Private Calculations
In public, Moscow's representatives have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a flagrant violation of global norms and a dangerous precedent. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Russia once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.
“The operation was carried out competently,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to unfold: fast, decisive and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for this long.”
These observations have fed a mood of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some publicly wondering how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war.
A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “shame” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she stated.
Allies in Decline
For more than two decades, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Cuba and Iran – hoping to forging a new axis able to challenge Washington.
Yet despite Moscow's top diplomat vowing backing for the Caracas government just in late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.
Bogged down in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other key allies lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.
“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with no option but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”
Focus on the Main Front
Analysts point to a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, analysts say, is Ukraine – and maintaining a good relationship with the US administration on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.
“Putin and Trump are presently engaged with a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.
Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks
Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.
This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025.
Moscow has also provided billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now probably lost forever.
A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's enormous oilfields could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.
“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”
A Dark Optimism
Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.
“The US administration is tough and cynical in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”
