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A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."